HISTORIC TREND: No Driver Has Won the Championship After Leading Points at All-Star Weekend
Will Kyle Larson Be the First to Break the Curse?
As the NASCAR Cup Series heads into All-Star Race weekend, one of the sport’s strangest and most persistent stats is once again in the spotlight: No driver has ever gone on to win the championship after leading the regular-season points standings at the time of the All-Star Race — not in the entire history of the NASCAR Playoffs era, which began in 2004.
This curious trend raises a crucial question in 2025: Can Kyle Larson break the curse?
THE LARSON FACTOR: DOMINANT SEASON SO FAR
Kyle Larson has been electric in 2025. With multiple wins, consistent top-5 finishes, and elite performance across different types of tracks — from short ovals to superspeedways — Larson has cemented himself as the top contender through the first half of the season.
As of All-Star weekend, Larson sits atop the regular-season standings with a sizable cushion, thanks in part to his stage wins and playoff points accumulation. His No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team has been firing on all cylinders, looking sharper than they did even in his 2021 championship season.
But history hasn’t been kind to drivers in his position.
THE “ALL-STAR LEADER CURSE”: A CLOSER LOOK
Since the NASCAR Playoffs were introduced in 2004, not one driver who has led the points standings going into All-Star Race weekend has finished the season hoisting the championship trophy. The stat includes some of the biggest names in the sport:
- Kevin Harvick (2015, 2020)
- Kyle Busch (2018, 2019)
- Denny Hamlin (2021)
- Martin Truex Jr. (2017 pre-All-Star but lost momentum midseason)
Each started the season with dominance but stumbled during the high-pressure final stretch.
The reasons vary — mid-season slumps, playoff chaos, mechanical failures, and unexpected eliminations — but the result has been the same: The regular-season leader at the All-Star break has never gone the distance.
IS LARSON DIFFERENT?
Larson’s track record suggests he might be the one to finally buck the trend. He’s proven time and again that he thrives under pressure and can adapt across the Playoffs’ diverse track lineup. His chemistry with crew chief Cliff Daniels remains among the strongest in the garage, and his postseason experience gives him an edge.
He also has a reputation for finishing strong — a key trait in a playoff system that rewards momentum over consistency.
“We’re not thinking about history or stats,” Larson said this week. “We’re thinking about execution and winning each week. If we keep doing what we’re doing, we’ll be in a great spot come November.”
POTENTIAL OBSTACLES AHEAD
Still, the NASCAR Playoffs are notoriously unpredictable. A single bad pit stop, a mechanical failure, or a multi-car wreck can derail even the strongest campaign. Larson will have to survive cut races at tracks like Bristol, the Charlotte Roval, and Martinsville — all known for chaos and comebacks.
And don’t forget the stacked field behind him. Drivers like Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Tyler Reddick are lurking with fast cars and playoff experience. One slip, and Larson’s lead could vanish.
FINAL WORD: CHASING HISTORY
Kyle Larson is already a champion, but 2025 offers a chance to etch his name even deeper into NASCAR history — not just by winning, but by overcoming a trend that has haunted every dominant driver before him.
Will Larson become the first driver to lead the points at All-Star weekend and win the championship in the same season?
If anyone can do it, it’s him. But as the playoffs loom, history — and 19 years of heartbreak for others — suggests it won’t be easy.
