The Penguins might now be able to reap the benefits of the NHL salary cap once more.
Craig Patrick, occupying his customary perch on the media level at PPG Paints Arena, couldn’t contain his laughter on Wednesday night. However, it was unrelated to the Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Detroit Red Wings preseason game. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic earlier in the day, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman predicted that the salary cap for the upcoming season will be between $87 million and $88 million. After accounting for the difference, that raise would rank as the biggest upper-limit payroll surge in the league since a $4 million gain between the 2017–18 and 2018–19 seasons.
Patrick acknowledged irony with a hearty chuckle. After all, he often repeated the views of the previous ownership, which believed that a cap was necessary to allow mid-to small markets like Pittsburgh to compete with teams that could afford to spend lavishly, like the Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, and others, during the final seasons of his Hall of Fame tenure as general manager of the Penguins.
Though at the expense of the 2004–05 season, the Penguins and other like-minded teams prevailed, as Pittsburgh established themselves as a premier team during the cap era. Twenty years later, the Penguins may still be competitive because the cap structure they claimed they needed to keep wealthy teams from spending more above $90 million would likely encroach on that amount. Patrick, who is currently a professional scout with the Penguins, stated, “It’s a different time.” “Very dissimilar.” According to Puck Pedia, the Penguins will commit $68.7 million to 14 players who have contracts expiring in 2024–2025. Players whose salaries were kept and who were bought out are included in that total.
The Penguins would have between $18.3 million and $19.3 million in cap space for 2024–25 if Bettman’s cap forecast comes to pass. In theory, they would still have more than $10 million to bolster their squad and be able to keep upcoming free agent Jake Guentzel, perhaps on a long-term agreement that raises his cap cost by around $2 million to $8 million. It is much more likely that Guentzel, who is among the top 10 left wingers in terms of goals and points scored during that time, stays in Pittsburgh thanks to the NHL’s biggest cap hike since the Penguins last won a postseason series.
It’s unlikely that President of Hockey Operations Kyle Dubas will go on a spending binge in the upcoming offseason, even with a significant cap increase. Dubas and the team’s owners, Fenway Sports Group, will also likely look to re-sign Guentzel and get a long-term contract agreement for captain Sidney Crosby. Since 2008–09, his cap hit has been $8.7 million; however, only he and his agent Pat Brisson are certain that this will not change in his next contract. For the purposes of this discussion, let’s nevertheless assume that it does and that Guentzel’s ceiling is $8 million on an extension. That would indicate that the Penguins might have ten players who together count for about $60.9 million against the 2025–26 cap depending on those possible signings and contractual obligations.
Based on an average cap hike of 4.6 percent between the 2006–07 and 2019–20 seasons, the Penguins may have around $30.6 million in cap space going into the 2025 summer with a $87.5 million cap for the upcoming season.
